Before and After
A look at some recent predictions from the Lund Loop community - and how they played out.
I’ve always been a big fan of reveal shows. You know the type, where there’s a “before” and “after.”
Bill hasn’t had a shave, haircut, or taken a bath since 1986, but this week we hooked him up with a barber, a stylist, and scrub brush and you won’t believe the difference it made.
COME ON OUT HERE BOB!!!
In early October, just for fun, I ran a poll in the Lund Loop Discord, asking members to weigh in on a half dozen different predictions.
Let’s take a look at those predictions and the corresponding “before” and “after” charts.
Question #1: What does SPX hit first, 4000 or 5000?
Lund Loop subscribers overwhelmingly picked 5000.
Okay, technically, this one is still unresolved, but for now, I have to call it a miss as we got within 114 points of 4000, but 182 away from 5000.
If you had to pick as of today, which do you think gets hit first, 4000 or 5000? Tell me in the comments section.
Question #2: What yield do we see first on the 10-year, 1%, or 2%?
At a 4:1 ratio, subscribers picked 2%, booking this as a win. Woot!
Question #3: What does oil hit first, $40 or $100 per barrel?
This one feels easy in retrospect as oil was only at $75 when the question was posed. But with a 5:1 ratio, the community picked $100, banking this in the win column. Double woot!
Question #4: What market cap does Apple hit first, $2-Trillion or $3-Trillion?
We’ve gotta take the “L” on this one as Lund Loop subscribers picked $2 trillion by a 2:1 margin. 🤮
Question #5: What does gold trade at first, $1500oz or $2000oz?
This one seemed like a no-brainer as well with gold trading down near $1650 an ounce at the time and the community went with the lower prediction by more than a 2:1 margin.
It’s not a loss yet though. Where would you guess gold goes first from here? $2000 or $1500? Let me know in the comments section.
Question #6: What does BTC trade at first, $20K or $70K?
By a 3:1 margin, Lund Loop members called for $70K first, and although this is also technically still unresolved, I’m invoking a point of parliamentary procedure and calling this one a win for the community.
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