The Saturday Cut: Reprice the Market. Reset Your Regret.
Markets move on. These ideas don’t.
Three themes worth adding to your process.
The Lesson Bears Never Learn
Bears have a problem. They don’t know when to leave the party.
They get what they want. A pullback. A correction. Sometimes even a full bear market. They get their pound of flesh. But it’s never enough. They want more. They want everything to go to zero.
So they stay.
Think of it like someone who hangs around after the party’s over. The music’s off, people are leaving, the lights are on — but they’re still there, looking for one more drink. That’s what perma bears do. The environment starts to change, but they’re still anchored to the same narrative.
Meanwhile, the market is already shifting. Price stops going down. Levels get reclaimed. Higher lows start forming. The signals are there.
But if you’re still committed to the bearish view, you don’t see it. Or worse, you see it and ignore it.
Markets don’t reward conviction. They reward adaptability.
The goal isn’t to ride a move into the ground.
It’s to recognize when it’s over — and move on before the market does it without you.
There are plenty of times to be bearish. There are plenty of times to flip from long to short. But those decisions have to come from the technicals — from what price is actually doing — not from a predetermined belief about what should happen.
P.S. The same problem exists on the other side. Perma bulls are just as rigid. The difference is they’ve had history on their side. For decades, markets have moved up and to the right. That doesn’t make them right — it just makes their bias more forgiving.
It’s Not About Being Right. It’s About Making Money
There’s a subtle but important difference between being right and making money.
Traders often get caught up in proving a point. They want their view to play out. They want validation. They want to say they called the move correctly. But the market doesn’t reward opinions. It rewards execution.
You can be right about the broader direction and still miss the trade. You can be wrong about the narrative and still make money by aligning with price.
The focus should be on opportunity, not validation.
When conditions improve and setups appear, that’s where the attention should go. Not on defending a prior stance or arguing about what should happen next.
The market offers chances on both sides. The question isn’t whether your original view was correct.
The question is whether you took advantage of what was actually in front of you.
Where We Are > What You Missed
After a big move, the hardest thing to adjust isn’t your positioning—it’s your perspective.
Most people anchor to the low. They measure everything from where the move started and conclude that price has gone “too far, too fast.” But that anchor is arbitrary. The market doesn’t care where you wish you bought. It only cares where it is now.
Sometimes you have to reprice the entire situation. Wipe the chart clean and ask: if I had no memory of how we got here, how would I interpret this? Because not every move down that preceded the rally was structural. Some of it may have been distortion—event-driven, emotional, temporary. If that’s the case, then what feels extended might actually just be continuation.
That’s the reframing. Not prediction—possibility.
And this is where most people get stuck. They trust the narrative that explains the move instead of the price that already absorbed it. But price is the only thing that matters. It reflects everything—news, positioning, sentiment—whether you agree with it or not.
So after a big move, the job isn’t to chase or fade it. It’s to reset your lens. Remove the anchor. Question the dip. And stay open to the idea that what feels stretched might not be.
Because the real risk isn’t being wrong about the move. It’s being stuck in a version of the market that no longer exists.
This is the thinking.
The Full Daily Update is where ideas become action—best setups, best odds, least risk.
All opinions expressed in The Lund Loop are my own personal opinions and don’t reflect the views of my employer, any associated entities, or other organizations I’m associated with.
Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be looked at as investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own diligence.