Will You Be Forced to Become a Trader?

The market may give you no choice.

Over the course of the week, I consume a lot of content.

This week, I came across two pieces that really made me think.

The first was Never Saw It Coming by Morgan Housel.

Look at the big news stories that move the needle – Covid, 9/11, Pearl Harbor, the Great Depression. Their common trait isn’t necessarily that they were big; it’s that they were surprises, on virtually no one’s radar until they arrived.

It’s like that every year. It’ll be like that every year.

It’s been like that this year.

The Economist – a magazine I admire – publishes a forecast of the year ahead each January. Its January 2020 issue does not mention a single word about Covid. Its January 2022 issue does not mention a single word about Russia invading Ukraine. That’s not a criticism – both events were impossible to know when the magazines were likely planned in November and written in December each year. But that’s the point: The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events, are always what you don’t see coming.

How do you live with that?

The second was a tweet from veteran trader Peter Brandt.

Peter Brandt @PeterLBrandt

Welcome to stagnated U.S. stock market Most traders want to be decisively bullish or bearish. But what if we are entering a version of the stagflated 1968-1982? What if S&Ps develop huge sloppy range of e.g. 3700 to 5200 for next five years? $SPY $ES_F What's your strategy then?

Most people are looking for a binary outcome in the market - it either goes up or it goes down.

But as Morgan says, the most consequential events are the ones you don’t see coming.

And as Peter says, that could be a sideways market that lasts for a decade - or more.